CapCon: SCOTUS on Rent Laws, CapCon Q&A with Budget Director, Siena Poll Insight

Feb 20, 2024

Good afternoon — it’s Tuesday, and National Cherry Pie Day.

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2024

TODAY’S CAP CON: SCOTUS on rent laws case, CapCon Q&A with state Budget Director Blake Washington, Siena poll takeaways, and more.

🔨 Is Tomorrow a Session Day? No.

❄️ Tonight’s Weather: Albany: Mostly clear, low 20s. New York City: Partly cloudy, low 30s (National Weather Service)

🕓 Happy Tuesday! Welcome back to the week. If you were off yesterday, you might have missed Monday’s CapCon. Don’t worry about digging through your inbox. You can read that, and all previous newsletters, on our website.

⚖️ SCOTUS Won’t Hear N.Y. Rent Laws Case: The U.S. Supreme Court said Tuesday it won’t hear a pair of cases that could have upended New York’s rent stabilization laws.

The challenges were brought by property owners in New York City, who had argued that changes to the laws were unconstitutional.
They claimed the changes were a “taking”, which in legal terms is essentially when one is unlawfully deprived of something.

In this case, the “taking” was a rule that limits when a property owner can choose not to renew a lease with a tenant, they argued.

They said those rules can lead to lower property values, hurting their bottom line in the future.

SCOTUS denied cert, which means they’ve chosen not to hear the case. Justice Clarence THOMAS, considered a conservative, explained their decision.

“Petitioners’ facial challenges require a clear understanding of how New York City regulations coordinate to completely bar landlords from evicting tenants,” Thomas wrote. “The pleadings do not facilitate such an understanding.”

But Thomas said the issues raised in the case should be reviewed if another challenge makes its way to the high court, which advocates for property owners said is likely.

Jay MARTIN, executive director of CHIP, a group that represents rent-stabilized property owners, said the current system is “unsustainable.”

“There will be future challenges. Thomas made that all but certain. But in the near future the fate of rent-stabilized buildings is in the hands of the state government,” Martin said.

Housing Justice for All, a tenants’ rights group, cheered the decision.

“The decision from the Supreme Court to deny certification sends a clear message to the real estate industry: No matter how hard they try to undermine rent stabilization behind the scenes, rent stabilized tenants are organized and will continue to fight for their homes,” said Cea WEAVER, the group’s campaign coordinator.

🗺️ Redistricting Update: You could probably actually call this a non-update, but no decisions have been made in the Assembly as of Tuesday afternoon on redistricting.

Two legislative sources told me Tuesday the Assembly is trying to convene members for a conference this week to chat about the maps, and what they want to do next.
That hadn’t been scheduled when I spoke to those sources.

But they confirmed that Democrats in the Legislature don’t like the proposed maps. That means they’ll likely be voted down, but what they do after is still up in the air.

🖊️ Open Letter on Israel: A handful of Jewish elected officials from the Legislature and New York City, all Democrats, released an open letter today criticizing the Israeli government's actions in Gaza and the West Bank.

State Sens. Liz Krueger and Brad Hoylman-Sigal signed onto the letter, as did Assemblyman Harvey Epstein.
City Comptroller Brad Lander and Brooklyn Council Member Lincoln Restler also signed on.

The letter condemned Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7, calling it “monstrous and indefensible,” and called for the release of all remaining Israeli hostages immediately.

But those officials also called on Israel to stop “the killing of civilians who are trapped in a war zone with no possibility to flee to safety.”

“We make no excuses for terrorists or their defenders, but we cannot support the actions of the current Israeli government,” they wrote.

📉 What Today’s Siena Poll Tells Us: Democrats and Republicans in New York are split on what the state’s most pressing issue is, a poll from the Siena Research Institute found.

Independent voters are not thrilled with high-profile Democrats leading up to this year’s elections.
And just 7 percent of those polled said they feel both President Joe BIDEN and former President Donald TRUMP are fit to serve for another four years.

There was a lot to unpack in today’s poll. Let’s get to it.

On The Issues: Democrats said New York’s high cost of living is the most important issue that Hochul and the Legislature should be working on, while Republicans said it’s the state’s recent influx of migrants.

For Democrats, 29 percent said the cost of living is most important. Affordable housing is second.
For Republicans, 37 percent said the influx of migrants is most pressing. Cost of living is second.

At this same time last year, Siena found that crime was the top issue for Republicans, though the influx of migrants wasn’t included on that poll. Democrats were focused on the cost of living at the time.

This time around, crime is the third most important issue to voters across all political affiliations, but that doesn’t mean it’s not on their minds, Siena College pollster Steve Greenberg told me.

“We still have 56 percent of voters saying crime in the state is worse now than it was a year ago,” Greenberg said. “Crime statistics don’t necessarily bear that out, but that’s what people feel.”

In November, the state reported a 6 percent decline in violent crime outside New York City during the first six months of 2023, but data for the full calendar year isn’t yet available.

Independent Voters: The poll asked independent voters, a key constituency, how they feel about several candidates and elected officials.

For Gov. Kathy HOCHUL, 26 percent of independent voters find her to be favorable.

That’s a drop compared to how she was viewed by independent voters right before the 2022 election for governor, when 40 percent found her favorable.

That’s important because Hochul won that election by just 6.4 percent — the smallest margin of victory for Democrats since they wrestled the governorship from Republicans in 2006.

Other candidates and officials scored higher favorability numbers in the poll, including Biden, who is favorable to 27 percent of independent voters.

Trump scored higher with independents, but is still underwater with 52 percent finding him unfavorable compared to 42 percent favorable.

U.S. Sen. Kirsten GILLIBRAND, who’s up for reelection this year, had the closest margin of anyone, with 31 percent of independent voters finding her favorable, and 37 percent unfavorable.

“Independents, right now, are looking a whole lot more like Republicans in New York,” Greenberg said.

Hochul’s Numbers: Hochul saw a bump in overall favorability in last month’s poll from Siena, but that’s now disappeared.

In November, Hochul’s favorability was at 40 percent. That went up to 45 percent in January.
Tuesday’s poll has Hochul’s favorability back down at 41 percent.

Hochul’s favorability, since she became governor, hasn’t made it above 50 percent.

“I think that’s stunning,” Greenberg said. “Right before she became governor, no New Yorkers knew her, so it took time. But now she’s been governor for two and a half years.”

More voters approve of the job Hochul is doing as governor than don’t, but that number’s down a hair as well.

Last month, 52 percent of voters said they approved of the job Hochul was doing as governor. That was up from 48 percent in November.
This month, it’s back down to 48 percent.

It’s a small enough margin that this kind of ebb and flow is expected in polling. Hochul’s job approval the month before the 2022 election was also at 52 percent, for example.

Race for President: Biden won New York in 2020, which wasn’t a surprise. Democrats here have an enrollment advantage and have won every statewide race since 2002.

Biden got about 61 percent of the vote, compared to about 38 percent for Trump.

But voters in New York are cooler on Biden at the moment, Tuesday’s poll found.

Of those asked, 50 percent find Biden to be unfavorable.
And 46 percent find him to be favorable.

That might sound like good news for Republicans, but 41 percent of voters said they would prefer somebody other than Biden or Trump as the next president.

Biden and Trump are evenly split, with 28 percent of voters saying they’d prefer Trump, and another 28 percent going for Biden.

Voters, however, are more confident that Trump could serve out another four-year term compared to Biden.

35 percent of voters said Trump, but not Biden, has the physical and mental fitness to serve another four-year term.
For Biden, 23 percent of voters said that he, but not Trump, could serve another term.

But few voters are confident in either candidate, the poll showed.

Just 7 percent of voters said both Biden and Trump are fit to serve another term.

Voting for Trump: And one other tidbit I noticed is how a criminal conviction would actually boost Trump’s standing with some voters.

Of those asked, 19 percent of Republicans, 10 percent of Democrats, and 8 percent of independents said they would be more likely to vote for Trump if he’s convicted.

Each week, we’ll bring you a Q&A with a top newsmaker or expert on topics in the news cycle and important to you.

❓ Blake WASHINGTON is the state budget director. He’s responsible for compiling the governor’s executive budget proposal, and helps lead negotiations for a final spending plan. He also keeps an eye on the state’s finances.

TU: The state is facing a $4.3 billion budget gap, with outyear gaps projected as well. Just last year, we had a budget surplus. How did we go from that to a gap?

BW: While record high receipts just two years ago provided the state with a short-term surplus, receipts have now returned to a normal level. Our state financial plan, which is updated and published quarterly, identifies risks, and demonstrates projections based on that point in time.

For example, coming into this budget, our outyear projections predicted modest revenue growth, but better than expected receipts took about $2.2 billion off of the gap. Another almost $5 billion came from improvements in other recurring revenue sources and we’re taking actions to reduce spending growth.

All of which paired with new spending brings us to our balanced budget proposal, which also maintains the governor’s commitment to a record level of reserves.

TU: Which do you think is more difficult, negotiating a budget when there’s a surplus, or when there’s a gap?

BW: Every budget year presents its own set of challenges. New York is filled with passionate representatives, advocates, and constituents. We all must do our part to make sure that we’re moving forward, always progressing, but that takes time, and the fundamentals remain: we must align spending projections for the entire financial plan period with the resources we have on hand. We’re fortunate to have a governor that takes these interests into heart and tries to do the best for all New Yorkers.

TU: State funding for education would change under the executive budget, with some school districts anticipating cuts in foundation aid. The Hochul administration says this is because districts are losing students. Are you open to compromise on that, or would push back on that proposal be a nonstarter?

BW: We get it, no one likes to see spending streamlined, especially when it comes to our children. But after two to three years of record-breaking funding from the state, and federal pandemic recovery funds, it is an appropriate time to begin this conversation.

There is no benefit to kicking the can down the road. New York taxpayers shouldn’t be expected to pay for empty seats. As Gov. Hochul has said, this is just common sense budgeting that our taxpayers deserve, especially when there are districts of the state that are growing or have high needs.

TU: The executive budget proposes $2.4 billion to help address the influx of migrants into the state. New York City Mayor Eric Adams told lawmakers in Albany earlier this month that he wants the state to cover 50% of their costs. Is $2.4 billion a hard cap, or is there room for more?

BW: Gov. Hochul is adamant that no individual city or state should bear the full weight of this crisis, but this funding is in no way sustainable. Taxpayers cannot, and do not want to sustain it. In the absence of federal financial assistance, we need to keep the economic engine of our state running. The budget provides necessary resources to accomplish this, while living within our means.

TU: The budget is due on Easter Sunday, March 31. The Legislature doesn’t typically work on holidays. Do you think a budget before that weekend is doable, and do you have reservations about a late budget if it’s not?

BW: After 20 years working on the state budget with the Assembly Ways and Means Committee, I am familiar enough with the time and attention that is put into budget negotiations to believe that completing the budget prior to Easter is definitely possible.

I’d like to see us through to an on-time budget but what matters most is a budget that works for New York. I, with my team at the division, are here to assist the governor and our colleagues in the Legislature to land the plane to enact a timely and balanced state budget

🍁 Cannabis Taxes: S4831A COONEY: Would repeal the current potency on recreational cannabis, and replace it with a phased-in wholesale tax that would ultimately land at 9 percent. This was also in Hochul’s executive budget proposal. (Amended)

💵 Public Retirees: A6639A PHEFFER AMATO: Would allow spouses of deceased public retirees to receive 100 percent of the cost of living adjustment for their retirement rather than the 50 percent allowed now. (Amended)

👶 Child Care Subsidies: A9220 GANDOLFO: Would require the state to implement regional cost factors for child care subsidies, allowing subsidies to be higher in areas where the cost is higher. (New bill)

🔨 Is Tomorrow a Session Day? No.

There are no events scheduled at the Capitol for Wednesday.

🍒 National Cherry Pie Day: It’s not cherry season, but that doesn’t matter. Today is National Cherry Pie Day.

According to the American Pie Council (yes, that exists), English tradition credits Queen Elizabeth I for the first cherry pie.
The recipe came to North America with English settlers, who used to bake pies in long, narrow pans called coffins. Coffins!

More from the Times Union (Free for CapCon Subscribers):

New judicial nominee on tap after shakeup in Saratoga County race

Poll: New Yorkers sour on their state, Biden and Trump

The Times Union Bill Tracker: Your guide to key bills on the table in this year’s legislative session, compiled by the TU’s Capitol Bureau. Find it here.