CapCon: What NYers should watch for in Biden's State of the Union
Plus, a gruesome case on Long Island reignites the debate over N.Y.'s bail laws, and we've got some good Thursday Reads for you as well.
Good afternoon — it’s Thursday, and National Cereal Day.
THURSDAY, MARCH 7, 2024
TODAY’S CAPCON: What should New Yorkers look out for in tonight’s State of the Union? We’ll tell you. Plus, the state’s bail laws are back on the table after a gruesome case on Long Island, and we’ve curated your Thursday Reads.
🔨 Is Tomorrow a Session Day? No.
☁️ Tonight’s Weather: Albany: Partly cloudy, high 20s New York City: Some clouds, high 30s (National Weather Service)
👀 What New Yorkers should watch for in Biden’s State of the Union address
🗣️ Tonight’s a big night for President Joseph BIDEN — and New York.
He’ll give what could be his final State of the Union address ahead of this year’s election, and we’ll be watching to see what he says.
New York has found some of its most pressing issues entangled with the federal government in recent years.
But there’s less pressure for Biden to appeal to voters in New York, where he won nearly two-thirds of the vote in 2020.
Here are four things to watch for in tonight’s address:
1. What will Biden say about the border and migrants?
🏛️ Immigration is a national issue, but it hits home for New York, where more than 175,000 migrants have arrived over the past two years.
That’s led New York City to spend billions of dollars to manage the crisis, with help from the state.
Gov. Kathy HOCHUL is proposing $2.4 billion to help New York City with the migrants in this year’s state budget. But New York City Mayor Eric ADAMS wants more.
He told the Legislature in January that he wants the cost of the crisis split 50-50 with the state.
Adams has estimated that the city will spend $12 billion by the middle of 2025.
Hochul has repeatedly met with White House officials to ask for help with the migrant crisis, but the federal government has — so far — been unwilling to help New York with the cost.
She wrote a letter to Biden in August asking for help with housing the migrants, funding their care and connecting them with jobs.
Biden fast-tracked work authorization for thousands of Venezuelans and allowed migrants to be housed at Floyd Bennett Field in Brooklyn.
Neither Biden nor Congress has made a strong, public push to send a major funding package to New York.
Politics plays into that, and that’s key in an election year.
Republicans in Congress blame Biden and Democrats for a surge of immigrants at the southern border in recent years.
Biden has said those same Republicans could have helped do something about that, but decided to reject a bipartisan immigration deal last month.
Biden has a lot of options tonight. He could press Congress to come to the table on immigration, announce new proposals, go after his opponents, or say nothing at all.
We’ll be watching to see what he says on immigration, and if he mentions the migrant crisis in New York.
2. Will Biden propose anything that could boost New York’s economy?
💵 New York’s economic recovery since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic has lagged behind that of the U.S.
Employment across the U.S. is higher than pre-pandemic levels, but New York just recovered the number of jobs it lost, Hochul said Thursday.
The latest data showed New York’s unemployment rate at 4.5 percent in January compared to 3.7 percent nationwide.
Business owners in upstate New York don’t see that getting better anytime soon. A new Siena poll released this week showed 67 percent of upstate CEOs felt business conditions were getting worse for them.
And a separate Siena poll released last month found the state’s cost of living was the number one issue for New York voters.
Hochul has tried to boost the state’s economy by working to attract major companies.
Micron, a global computer chip manufacturer, announced two years ago that it planned to invest $100 billion to build a new facility near Syracuse that the company claims would create 50,000 new jobs.
New York is also planning a $10 billion public-private partnership to create a new semiconductor facility at the Albany NanoTech Complex.
Biden visited New York for the Micron announcement, and touted it as the kind of development that could help replace lost manufacturing jobs in the U.S.
We’ll be watching to see what Biden’s plans are for the economy over the next year, and how New York might play into that.
3. What will Biden say on Israel and Gaza?
🎤 The war between Israel and Hamas is an international conflict, but it’s gotten a lot of attention in New York.
Hochul visited Israel after Hamas attacked the country in October. She’s been a staunch supporter of Israel during the conflict. It’s also played into politics.
Some progressive Democrats have condemned Israel’s tactics in response to Hamas, particularly over civilian deaths.
Many moderate Democrats have stood by Israel, but some have found a middle ground by criticizing Hamas while calling for a ceasefire to aid civilians.
It can be a balancing act for some elected officials who don’t want to alienate a block of voters if they can avoid it.
Some voters staged a protest vote on Super Tuesday, choosing “uncommitted” on the ballot instead of backing Biden.
If Biden chooses to appeal to progressive voters, who’ve criticized his handling of the conflict, that could influence how New York Democrats speak about it publicly as well.
4. What will Biden say about abortion, or will he skip it?
📝 Democrats have made clear they plan to campaign on the issue of abortion in this year’s elections.
Rep. Tom SUOZZI, a Democrat, used it to highlight his Republican opponent's murky stance on the issue in last month’s special election for a congressional district on Long Island.
After a report claimed former President Donald Trump supported a nationwide 16-week abortion ban last month, Hochul held an impromptu press conference the same day to slam him.
Democrats recognize abortion as a particularly strong issue in New York, where it was decriminalized in 1970 — before the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Roe v. Wade.
When Democrats took control of the state Senate in 2019, one of the first things they did was move abortion to the state’s Public Health Law.
Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe, Hochul and Democrats have also diverted funding to help abortion providers, and shielded them from liability.
Numbers show their strategy could be effective; a Siena poll found 68 percent of likely voters in New York opposed the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe in 2022.
If Biden makes a strong showing on abortion, that would be a validation for Democrats in New York who see it as a winning issue in competitive districts.
The State of the Union is scheduled for 9 p.m. Thursday. Check your local listings to see who’s airing it.
🚨 Long Island case reignites bail debate
🚔 If you didn’t catch this horrifying news, four people were arrested Wednesday in Suffolk County after police discovered body parts at multiple locations in and around Babylon.
They were charged with concealing a human corpse, tampering with physical evidence and hindering prosecution, but aren’t accused of murder.
A judge released them with ankle monitors.
Suffolk County District Attorney Ray TIERNEY, a Republican, said they were released because of changes made to the state’s criminal justice laws five years ago.
That’s when Democrats made their first set of changes to the state’s bail laws.
Tierney said that, under those changes, someone charged with concealing a corpse can no longer be held on bail.
“This is yet another absurd result thanks to ‘bail reform’ and a system where the Legislature in Albany substitutes their judgment for the judgment of our judges and the litigants in court,” Tierney said.
Hochul appeared on FOX 5’s “Good Day New York” Thursday morning, and said Tierney should have built a case that would have allowed the judge to set bail or remand the four individuals.
Democrats have amended the state’s bail laws in the past few years to allow several charges to revert back to bail-eligible.
When asked about Tierney’s claim, Hochul suggested that Tierney had brought the prosecution “a little early,” and said his office could have brought bail-eligible charges.
“Maybe the DA should have done a more thorough investigation and brought murder charges, conspiracy to commit murder or even assault charges because all of them are bail eligible,” Hochul said. “I encourage the DA's office to go back and build your case.”
Tierney then scheduled a media availability for later Thursday afternoon to dispute Hochul’s remarks, but issued a statement in the meantime saying she was “either completely clueless or being deceitful.”
“When law enforcement had enough evidence to arrest these defendants for serious felonies, they did the right thing and made those arrests,” Tierney said. “It would be helpful if the governor confined her comments to subjects that she knows something about.”
🖋️ At least two Democrats want the state Legislature to do something in response to the situation.
State Sen. Monica MARTINEZ and Assemblyman Steve STERN, both Democrats, said Thursday they’ll sponsor a bill that would make the charge related to concealing a body bail-eligible.
“I fully support giving judges the discretion to hold defendants who defile the dead,” Martinez said.
Stern said he’s asking Democrats in the Assembly “committed to public safety to strongly support this initiative.”
🤾 Hochul picks new OCFS commissioner
👉 Dr. DaMia HARRIS-MADDEN — the current executive director of the Westchester County Youth Bureau — was nominated Thursday by Hochul to be the next commissioner of the state Office of Children and Family Services.
The agency has been pivotal in the state’s expansion of child care in recent years, directing funding and policy.
Harris-Madden would be the third head of OCFS under Hochul.
Harris-Madden has worked within Westchester County government since 2018, and spent 14 years working for the city of Mount Vernon before that.
She worked within the Youth Bureau of the mayor’s office in Mount Vernon.
“I am committed to leveraging existing partnerships, collaborating across systems, and delivering deliberate, well-led, and efficient services,” Harris-Madden said in a statement.
She would have to be confirmed by the Senate, but she already has the endorsement of someone pretty important: Senate Majority Leader Andrea-STEWART-COUSINS, who represents part of Westchester County.
“We will be fortunate to have her at the helm, steering our efforts toward a brighter future for New York’s children and families,” Stewart-Cousins said.
The Legislature is back in Albany Monday and could consider her nomination at any time.
Here are some good stories from the week that you might have missed, or we think would be of interest to you.
❤️🩹 Nurse shortage, opioid crisis take the stage at state Capitol (Times Union)
⚖️ N.Y. judges group backs new formula that would increase judicial seats (New York Law Journal)
🏃 Former Assemblyman Tom Abinanti prepares run against Assemblywoman Mary Jane Shimsky (News12)
💵 New York legislative Labor Committee chairs renew effort for minimum wage parity between upstate, downstate (Spectrum News)
🗣️ Price gouging and sketchy lenders among top NY consumer complaints (Times Union)
💰 State lawmakers look to improve pensions to attract public sector workers (City & State)
🏈 Biden aide Tom Perez, tasked with helping NY through migrant crisis, lands VIP suite at Buffalo Bills stadium as border outrage grows (New York Post)
🔑 Short-Term Rentals: A9351 JENSEN: Would create a state commission to study the impact of short-term rentals on the state’s housing stock, and recommend any subsequent regulations or laws. (New bill)
💵 Agency Accounting: A9377 NOVAKHOV: Would require state agencies to submit annual reports to the financial committees in the Legislature on all fines, fees, interest and surcharges collected in the past year, along with their purpose. (New bill)
🍷 State Liquor Authority: S8741 SKOUFIS: Would remove the rule that prohibits two members of the same political party from serving on the State Liquor Authority. (New bill)
The Times Union Bill Tracker: Your guide to key bills on the table in this year’s legislative session, compiled by the TU’s Capitol Bureau. Find it here.
🔨 Is Tomorrow a Session Day? No.
There are no events scheduled for tomorrow at the Capitol.
🥣 National Cereal Day: There’s a lot of ways to use cereal, and everybody’s so creative. I prefer mine in a bowl, but I once knew someone who would bread chicken with corn flakes. It wasn’t bad.
The first record of cereal was in western New York, where James Caleb Jackson had dough so dry that it needed to soak in milk overnight.
He called it “granula,” which was just one letter away from the “granola” John Harvey Kellogg would later create.
More from the Times Union (Free for CapCon Subscribers):
Judge blocks Newburgh rent stabilization after landlord lawsuit