Where Trump's support grew most in New York by county

Hint: it's probably not where you think it would be.

Good afternoon — it’s Thursday and International Stout Day.

In today’s CapCon:

• Support for President-elect Trump grew just about everywhere in New York but those gains were higher in different areas of the state.

• Here are the counties where support for Trump and Harris changed the most, including which flipped compared to 2020.

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(Julia Demaree Nikhinson/Associated Press)

☑️ New York shifted red on Tuesday. Here are the counties and boroughs with the biggest changes.

President-elect Donald J. Trump received 6% more votes in New York Tuesday than he did in 2020, based on the latest results from the state Board of Elections.

That doesn’t sound statistically significant and, if more voters had turned out for Vice President Kamala Harris, it wouldn’t be. Trump received about 180,000 more votes this year in New York — a state with more than 12 million registered voters.

But here’s something that might shock you in deep blue New York: Harris received 17% fewer votes than President Joseph R. Biden did in 2020.

I know this because I spent the day crunching the numbers by county between the two election cycles in a spreadsheet that is now very full.

We knew that more New Yorkers had turned out to vote for Trump — but I was curious about where he gained the most votes across the state. And no, it wasn’t in a bunch of rural counties that were bound to vote red anyway.

It was in Queens and the Bronx. And for what it’s worth, Trump lost the most votes compared to four years ago in counties upstate.